How To Bet On Football Transfers
When the football season winds down for the summer, it can feel a little like being stuck in a suspended animation for a football fan. Particularly in the odd-numbered years with no World Cup and no Euros to follow along with instead, fanatics are at a loose end. With weekends suddenly football-free, the months between May and August start to feel less interesting, marking time before the dawn of the next season.
Given this interminable waiting period, it’s easy to see why transfer speculation becomes such a big part of the summer: it’s just about the only football-related thing left to focus on. We spend the summer months engaging in fervent speculation. Has the up-and-coming star who pushed an unfancied team into the upper half of the table earned himself a move to the title contenders? Will the want-away striker who spent half the season warming the bench get his wish, and move to a club that better appreciates his talents? These kinds of stories and speculation help to maintain a love of football during the fallow season— and bookmakers have taken note.
After all, with the top-tier competitions not in action over the summer months, betting options are few and far between. In an effort to avoid a total drought, bookmakers and punters alike are increasingly placing their focus on the transfer window. If you haven’t yet tried transfer betting and are curious to find out more, then you’ve come to the right guide. Read on for the key facts you need to be aware of if you are tempted to try betting on football transfers…
Step One: Stay Up To Date With Transfer News And Speculation
Football transfers are tricky to predict. Every year seems to have its on-off-on again-off again saga that dominates the summer months. It’s only when you follow these rumours closely that you realise how often football transfer stories can go for weeks without anything ever coming of it. If you want to make a successful transfer market bet it is important to know what type of news to pay attention to, and what to ignore.
The internet is full of sites that dedicate themselves entirely to football gossip. If you Google right now for your team and add “transfer rumours”, you’ll see your club linked to several players. It’s entirely possible none these linked players will ever play for your club. As a result of this kind of issue, the first thing you have to know is the difference between rumours and genuine speculation. Rumours can be spread in seconds among fans on social media; genuine speculation is usually courtesy of a more authoritative source. Take the time to do your research prior to making a bet; the more time you spend reading these rumours, the more adept you’ll become at judging whether a transfer is a fanciful rumour or more grounded in reality.
There are other benefits to keeping your finger firmly on the pulse of the transfer news market, too. Most importantly, it gives you the chance to note small little indications that suggest a big move might be afoot. If a club that has been steadfast about not selling its star player suddenly coughs up several million pounds for a player in the same position, that’s a sign that they’re preparing to deal.
Step Two: Sign Up To A Bookmaker That Offers Odds On Transfers
If you want to give betting on football transfers a try, then you’re going to need a bookmaker to do it. Unfortunately, football transfer betting is nowhere near as ubiquitous as standard football betting, and you may struggle to find a bookie offering odds on the player or deal you wish to bet on. Bookies offer some markets, but not necessarily a comprehensive choice that allows you to make the bet you were hoping to make.
Here’s an example of just how severe the discrepancy between bookmakers can be in regards to transfer betting opportunities. As you’d expect, we did plenty of research into the current transfer betting opportunities available at the time of writing this piece. One of the transfer betting options we saw mentioned across a number of sites was for Danny Ings to find a new club before the end of the summer transfer window.
This bet is a perfect example of how difficult betting on transfer specials can be. For example, only a few bookmakers offered any options for this bet: some bigger names simply didn’t have any choices available at all.
Of the bookmakers that did have options available for this bet, the choices available varied hugely. For example, BetVictor offered odds on the chances of Danny Ings playing for Spurs in the next year. Ladbrokes offered odds on Danny Ings moving to a number of different clubs… but not Spurs. There’s very little conformity across the bookmakers when it comes to transfer betting, and this inevitably means you’ll likely have to spend time hunting down the best odds for your betting choice.
Thankfully, you can count on Betting.org to help make the process of finding the right bookmaker for your transfer bets as simple as possible. To save you from having to check multiple bookies only to find they don’t offer transfer betting at all, we’ve put together a list of bookmakers who are most likely offer transfer betting markets. While we can’t guarantee every one of these bookies will have the exact bet you’ve been looking for, you can at least be sure you’re checking bookmakers with a strong history in offering transfer bets at all. So, without further ado, read on for a list of bookmakers who we have found offer transfer betting markets more often than not…
BetVictor are arguably the biggest and best known of the bookies that offer transfer betting. In our Danny Ings example above, BetVictor performed well by offering a rather niche bet where a competitor failed. It’s clear they have seen the potential in these markets and committed to providing a relatively comprehensive range of choices. As a result, it’s clear to us that if you’re looking for transfer betting, BetVictor are one of the best choices available.
Given Paddy Power’s stellar reputation, it’s no surprise they have chosen to embrace the football transfer betting market. While the options available aren’t as broad at BetVictor’s, there’s still more choice than the vast majority of other sites, which we believe makes this popular Irish bookie worth a look if you’re planning on giving transfer betting a try.
Although Ladbrokes didn’t deliver on our example above, they are generally reliable for a decent range of transfer betting markets. While the scope of choice may not be particularly wide, there’s still more options than we found at many other bookmakers, so we think they’re worth a look if you’re on the hunt for a particular bet. It’s also worth noting that Ladbrokes are one of the most reputable and popular bookmakers in the industry, so you should be in good hands should you decide to try transfer betting.
As a betting exchange, Betfair tend to have a higher number of markets than standard bookmakers, so it should come as no surprise to learn they include options on a range of transfer bets. Again, as with most of the bookies we’ve discussed, the list of choices isn’t what you’d consider comprehensive and rather pales in comparison to standard sport betting choices. However, there’s a few markets to consider here, so if you’re familiar with how Betfair’s betting exchange works, they’re well worth considering when trying to find available bets for football transfers.
When compared to the big hitters on this list, there’s no denying that 10Bet are the minnows — but sometimes, the minnows have the power to surprise you. 10Bet might not be the best-known bookie online, but they have cornered themselves a place in the niche world of football transfer betting by offering a range of choices. While it’s not the most comprehensive coverage of transfer markets you’ll find, it’s still better than the big fat absolute zero that is offered by some of the best known names in the industry. So if you want to match your new interest in transfer betting with a brand new bookie, 10Bet might be the perfect choice for you.
Step Three: Double-Check The Transfer Speculation
Once you have chosen your bookmaker and are ready to bet, pause for a moment, and briefly return to step one. Football transfers are a market where nothing can happen at all for weeks, and then everything happens seemingly at once. This speed is one of the reasons for betting on football transfers is so exciting, but it can also be problematic.
While unlikely, it is not beyond the bounds of supposition that you could find yourself in the following scenario: You’ve made your decision and you’re ready to place your bet. You head to one of the bookmakers we’ve recommended above and begin the process of signing up for an account. You, as you should, read through the terms and conditions, and then follow through the depositing requirements for you to earn the welcome offer. You spend 20 minutes going through the sign-up, reading the T&Cs, and making your first deposit. You eventually navigate to the transfer betting special and make your bet… only to later discover that in the 20 minutes you’d spent signing up to your bookmaker, the rumour mill changed suddenly and now it’s almost certain the player you bet on will be remaining with his existing club for the next season.
The above situation can and does, happen: any delay between checking the latest rumours and actually placing your bet is highly inadvisable. Right up until the moment you finalise your bet, you should be scanning newspapers and social media for any potential updates that might render your bet worthless.
Step Four: Place Your Bet… And Then Wait
When you are confident that a deal is going to happen, it might be wise to move ahead with your bet as soon as you see fit. If you wait for the story to pick up momentum, then the odds will start to narrow before your very eyes. The fact is, if you wait to be sure that a move is imminent, you’ll struggle to find any odds at all, and the ones you do find will be incredibly unattractive. Betting on football transfers, if you are going to do it successfully, involves acting decisively.
You should place your bet when you are confident of success, while the odds are still palatable, and then leave be and hope everything works out as you hope. It’s important to remember that betting on football transfers is not like betting on a match, where you’re going to know if you’ve won or lost in 90 minutes or less. Transfer betting is about playing the long game. Some bettors don’t like the feeling of a bet being open for so long, but if you want to bet successfully on transfers, it’s something you will need to get used to. If the terms of a bet say “Player X to be at Club Y by the close of the transfer window”, be prepared to wait until midnight on deadline day to be sure one way or the other.
As with every other kind of betting, there are no guarantees of success when betting on transfers. However, if you follow the above guide, you’ll be off to a decent start. Just remember to be patient, that research is everything, and that the flow of information can be extremely rapid as well as extremely slow— keep those points in mind, and you’ll be well placed to add transfer betting to your overall betting experience.