Joel Stakes Betting Tips: In-Form Mustashry One to Be on at Newmarket

Betting.org experts give their tips for the Joel Stakes at Newmarket. Mustashry has been in terrific form this season, so is taken to provide trainer Sir Michael Stoute with a fourth winner of the 1m Group 2 contest run on Friday, 28 September. His stable companion Regal Reality is an unexposed and improving sort that looks sure to go well and therefore rates the main danger. Accidental Agent is a Group 1 winner who drops in grade, so is another worthy of consideration in the five-runner event. Full details on these horses’ chances can be found by reading our in-depth 2018 Joel Sakes betting tips preview.

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Odds
6/4
Selection
Mustashry
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Odds
7/2
Danger
Regal Reality
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Odds
11/2
E/W
Accidental Agent
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Mustashry the pick of Stoute pair in Joel Stakes

Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won the Group 2 Joel Stakes a record three times. He saddles Mustashry and Regal Reality in this year’s renewal of the 1m contest at Newmarket on Friday (16:55). Both have leading claims, but slight preference is for the former who comes into this race right at the top of his game.

This five-year-old is two from three this season and has a terrific strike rate of 43 per cent having won six of his 14 starts. He is a typical older improver from the Stoute yard and there was lots to like about his return to action at Sandown back in July when staying on well to beat Spark Plug by half-a-length in a Listed contest.

It was a performance which suggested there was better to come and that view was confirmed when Mustashry ran a blinder in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York to beaten just half-a-length by Lord Glitters. He was in pole position entering the final furlong, but couldn’t match the winner’s late burst of speed.

However, he went down all guns blazing in defeat to a really talented sort. Mustashry has since got back to winning winning ways in the Group 2 Park Stakes at Doncaster when beating D’bai by a neck. Having raced prominently throughout, he rallied strongly when headed inside the last to get back up and win a shade cosily.

In doing so, the son of Tamayuz showed that he possesses guts as well as class. The 7f trip of the Park Stakes was also on the sharp side for Mustashry, so it is a performance which can be upgraded.

The step back up to 1m, over which he boasts a 30 per cent strike rates, is sure to suit and play to his strengths. So, taking everything into account, Mustashry had to be the main punt in our Joel Stakes betting tips preview.

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Regal Reality feared most in receipt of weight

As the only three year-old in the field, the aforementioned Regal Reality receives a handy 4lb weight-for-age allowance from all his rivals. He also receives an extra 5lb from the 116 top-rated Accidental Agent as that one has to shoulder a penalty for winning a Group 1.

So, on adjusted ratings, this lightly-raced colt comes out 2lb clear of that rival. It makes the son of Intello a huge player and he is therefore feared most. Regal Reality has only had four starts – winning twice.

In the last of those successes, he came with came with swooping late run down the outside to win going away by 1 3/4 lengths from Ostilio in the Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. He was well on top at the finish and it was a visually taking performance which suggested there was plenty more to come.

Although only third last time out in the Group 3 Superior Mile at Haydock, Regal Reality raced too keenly at the head of affairs on bottomless ground. He did far too much too soon, so in eventually being beaten just two lengths by Here Comes When was far from disgraced.

The return to a sounder surface is sure to suit and he will surely be ridden with more restraint this time by jockey Ryan Moore. Goodwood showed Regal Reality is best when coming from off the pace; so, if connections revert to those tactics, he has to go close in this.

Regal Reality is also by far the least exposed in the field and should be more than up to making his mark at this level. Thus he rates the main danger to his stable companion among our 2018 Joel Stakes betting tips.

Class-dropping Accidental Agent another with claims

Accidental Agent has Group 1 success on his CV and now drops in grade. That makes him another with claims in what is a trappy affair where a case can be made for all five runners. Victory at the highest level came two starts back in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.

After being held-up at the rear of the 15-runner field, the Eve Johnson Houghton trained four-year-old came with a strong run a furlong from home to get up late on and beat Lord Glitters by half-a-length. He had subsequent Group 1 Sussex Stakes winner Lightning Spear a further neck back in third and some very useful types in-behind to boot.

That form sets a clear standard in this and Accidental Agent had excuses last time out when 10th of 11 to Alpha Centauri in a Group 1 at Deauville when awkwardly away. This is less competitive, but Accidental Agent faces no easy task giving weight all-round and all his best form has come off a strong pace in big fields.

So, with just five set to go post, it could turn into a tactical affair which is unlikely to play to his strengths. As the class act in this Joel line-up, however, Accidental Agent still commands the utmost respect.

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