Mill Reef Stakes Betting Tips: True Mason Can Build on French Efforts at Newbury

Betting.org experts give their Mill Reef Stakes betting tips for the feature juvenile Group 2 race over 6f at Newbury. True Mason has some fine efforts behind some of the top two-year-olds in training, so is taken to land the spoils on Saturday, 22 September now eased in grade. A very warm renewal is full of dangers, however, and the most consistent of those might just be Shine So Bright. Kessaar also its into that category and is a solid each-way bet on the upgrade. Thus 2018 Mill Reef Stakes betting tips preview has more on all these horses’ chances.

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Odds
4/1
Selection
True Mason
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William Hill logo
Odds
7/2
Danger
Shine So Bright
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Boylesports logo
Odds
5/1
E/W
Kessaar
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True Mason the Mill Reef punt

Trainer Karl Burke has hit the headlines with a big race double over Irish Champions Weekend and has an intriguing contender in True Mason with leading claims of landing the feature race at Newbury on Saturday, the 6f Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes for juveniles (14:55). This son of Mayson has made great strides since finishing a six-length fifth to the re-opposing Marie’s Diamond on debut at Leicester over the flying five furlongs.

True Mason built on his bow with a three-length third of 10 to Cosmic Law at Carlisle over the same trip, but when stepped up to the 6f of this won easing down at Nottingham. After tracking the leaders and pulling hard in the hands of Ben Curtis, he led two out, was then shaken up and edged left but drew readily clear of his 11 rivals before the furlong marker.

You couldn’t help but be impressed by the turn of foot True Mason displayed and he was value for more than the winning margin of 3 1/2 lengths. Connections then sent him across the Channel to France for a Group 2 at Maisons-Laffitte where he was beaten just a length by Signora Cabello when giving her 3lb.

That one is one of the leading juveniles in Europe, having previously landed the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. True Mason just didn’t quite have the speed to match the winner in the final 100 yards with that weight telling, but was always in touch and then found himself thrown right in at the deep end last time out.

Although beaten further in the 6f Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville, True Mason was still best of the rest behind Pretty Pollyanna and Signora Cabello as a 4 3/4 lengths third. Crucially in the context of this contest, he was giving 4lb to the fillies and also finished 2 1/2 lengths in front of Aidan O’Brien trained prospect Land Force.

On form lines through that one with other rivals contesting the Mill Reef, the case can be made that True Mason’s performances set the standard, especially as he turned the tables from his debut run on Marie’s Diamond. These exploits have earned him an official rating of 107 – one of five in the line-up within on that mark or 1lb higher.

With his training among the winners of late, and jockey Curtis again on board, True Mason has a real chance of landing an overdue success. We therefore put him up as a the value bet to win in our 2018 Mill Reef Stakes betting tips.

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Shine So Bright has obvious claims

With so many of the nine-runner field closely matched on ratings, the most dangerous for True Mason to contend with might just be Shine So Bright, who has demonstrated consistency whereas others haven’t. Trained by Andrew Balding, this Oasis Dream colt is by a Sir Percy mare and that suggests one day this one will get further.

For now, however, he has been knocking on the door in the grade of late, placing third when beaten by the same margin of 1 1/4 lengths at Glorious Goodwood and the Ebor Festival. Shine So Bright ran out a comfortable winner of his Nottingham maiden and was then sent to Royal Ascot for the first of his three Group 2 assignments to date.

Although beaten 5 3/4 lengths and fifth to Calyx in the Coventry Stakes there, King Power Racing clearly likely what they saw as the Leicester City FC owners purchased Shine So bright after the race and left Burke’s yard for Balding. Shine So Bright was then aimed at the Richmond Stakes by his new connections and was an unlucky third to Land Force after being denied a clear run just as the race was unfolding.

There was lots to like about the way he stayed on under plenty of pressure inside the last 100 yards to take third in the dying strides and finished a neck behind the aforementioned Marie’s Diamond. Jockey Oisin Murphy was Shine So Bright’s pilot at Goodwood and connections clearly mean business as he’s booked to ride him again here.

He was third again last time out in the Gimcrack Stakes at York when finding the trailblazing Emaraaty Ana. Shine So Bright finished a couple of lengths in front of The Irish Rover, who re-opposes and looks overexposed for this like Marie’s Diamond, so shouldn’t have anything to fear from him.

As he was also a neck ahead of Konchek at Goodwood, he looks to have the beating of some taking him on again. Those consistent displays from Shine So Bright have earned him joint top rating in this of 108; so, if running up to it, he ought to be involved in the finish.

Kessaar a solid each-way bet

Another with claims in this wide-open renewal of the Mill Reef is the John Gosden trained Kessaar, who has been in and out at times but clearly possesses plenty of potential. An each-way bet where, at the odds currently available at the time of writing, punters get their money back if he makes the frame.

The son of Kodiac has a 50 per cent strike rate at the trip, but has clearly not been the most straightforward. He kept on well when admittedly badly hampered to be a half-a-length runner-up to I’m A Dreamer on debut at York, but Kesaar then didn’t run to his potential when an 18-length 25th of 28 to Solider’s Call in the Listed 5f Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He scored at the third time of asking, however, and then some when bolting up by 10 lengths in a Windsor novice race over 6f. You can question what Kessaar beat when sent off odds-on, but he belatedly showed what all the hype was about when going in again on his group bow last time out.

Before that, however, he was disappointing when pitched against at Listed level in the Champion Two-Year-Old Trophy at Tipon. Kessaar reared up before racing and then dwelt, but soon got his act together to be beaten just two lengths; so, given those antics, it was a decent effort in the circumstances.

Belatedly delivering on his potential last time out, he was the second leg of a big-race double for Gosden on the day wonder filly Enable made her long-awaited return to action. Kessaar landed the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes despite taking a keen hold, as he made real headway after being switched and found plenty for pressure to take things up inside the last before running on strongly for a 2 1/2 lengths success.

The manner in which he sound went clear in the last 100 yards showed Gosden’s patient training and persistence with him paid off. A repeat of that from Kessaar, who is up 9lb to a rating of 107, puts him in with every chance here on a going day. He therefore completes our 2018 Mill Reef Stakes betting tips as one to consider each-way.

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